Arctic Tipping Points

Across the fjord outsde the glacier Eqip Sermia. Photo P. Wassmann

Historical examination has shown that climate-induced ecosystem change, for example that reported in the waters around Greenland, have major consequences for fish catches. In a situation where the status of many living marine resources is precarious, abrupt ecosystem change may have major socio-economic impacts on local communities (e.g. Inuits) dependent, both culturally and for subsistence, on these natural resources. Economic activities dependent upon marine ecosystem services, such as Arctic tourism, may also be vulnerable to abrupt, climate-driven changes to marine ecosystems, and face major challenges in adapting to the new conditions. In the high North, management of fisheries and marine food-web exploitation by native peoples, tourism, and oil and gas extraction is nested within larger, global-scale initiatives, reducing the ability of Arctic states to adapt to change. The development of a management plan for activities in the Arctic seas represents a major institutional experiment on how to address abrupt changes in the Arctic marine ecosystem. The challenge lies in developing managerial models than can help discount anticipated risks and at the same time profit from emerging opportunities. Lessons could be drawn from other management systems that have experienced major shifts in recent history (for example the Northwest Atlantic and Bering Sea areas). The success of these new models is dependent on three key factors, the availability of reliable scientific forecasts on the future changes of Arctic marine ecosystem in response to climate change, the development of regionally focused resource-use models, and communication conduits to efficiently and reliably transfer this knowledge into managerial and political frameworks.

A view of the Kangia Eqqaalu glacier south of Ilulissat. The daily fresh water discharge out of this fjord is equivalent to the annual freshwater consumption of New York. We see the hed of the fjord right in front of the inland ice cap, about 70 km east of Ilulissat. Photo P. Wassmann

Through scientific work, analysis of time series data and by communicating knowledge ATP wishes interested parties and stakeholders in Greenland and the pan-Arctic region (e.g. Inuit Circumpolar Conference).  ATP wishes also to reach relevant policy actors in Greenland and will search for possibilities to transfer knowledge.  Finally ATP wishes to convey results to the general public on this island.  This blog and the scientific work (see science blog on experimental work concurrently carried out in Greenland on the ATP web site) is a first step in this direction.  I wish to thank the ATP partner Hurtigruten ASA for the support during the expedition cruise to northern Greenland.

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