Arctic Tipping Points

What will happen to life in the Arctic Ocean when the ice disappears?

Houses in Siorapaluk, the norternmost settlement in the World. About 70 people live here. Life is based upon resources from the sea. Photo. P. Wassmann

With the long-term decrease of Arctic Sea ice since satellite measurement started in 1978 it has been predicted that the Arctic Ocean should be free of ice in summer around 2050.  The winter ice will still be in the same position, although annual, relatively thin ice will predominate.  However, after the dramatic decline of sea ice in summer 2007 many oceanographers fear that the Arctic Ocean development has entered a new phase; a tipping point may have been reached and passed.  Since 2007 the ice cover has not recovered and also in 2008 and probably also 2009 summer ice cover will be low.  What does all that mean for the ecology of the Arctic Ocean and humans that live in the Arctic realm?

It implies first of all that the primary production in the Arctic Ocean will increase and provide food for organisms that currently live under extreme food limitation.  It means also that organisms that hardly survive in the Arctic Ocean at present will experience good living conditions (e.g. zooplankton).  Capelin could be one these potential candidates.  That, in turn, will probably result in that fish will benefit from it and we may foresee an Arctic fishery in the future.  This new fishery has to be managed by the 5 Arctic states, Russia, USA, Canada, Greenland and Norway.  Lack of ice in the summer implies also that necessary substrate for organisms like seals and Polar Bears disappear in critical times of the year.  While the Polar Bear may learn to get back on land (from where he came some ten thousand years ago, developing from the Grisly Bear) and try to survive (as Polar Bears in the Hudson Bay region already do).  But what about seals?  It may look like that seals will suffer greatly from the loss of sea ice.  What the decline of the seal population will bring for the ecosystem is a matter of speculation.  Will there be less grazing pressure on capelin or leave the food to marine mammals that do not depend on ice as a substrate, e.g. whales.

Will he recognise himself? Two girls taking care of their brother. Photo P. Wassmann

For the only people that depend on the marine food web, i.e. the Inuit, all changes in climate and ecosystems have an immediate effect on their living conditions. Before modern times they were flexible in their manner to live.  They would move from winter to spring and summer places, according to the availability of prey animals.  Modern civilisation with schools, hospitals, infra structure etc. resulted in permanent settlements that cannot be easily changed when the food resource in the near by ecosystem is changing.  Let us, for example, look at the Inuits in the Thule region.  They live in this inhospitable region because of the North Water Polynya with its high productivity and the overwintering and sea mammals in the open water.  It may well be that the polynya will disappear as so many other polynyas have and will do.  In this case the main food source of the Thule Inuits will decline or move towards the Arctic Ocean, with negative ramifications for a population that is now geographically inflexible.  It would make life more difficult and probably depended on a different economy or support from the south.

For many other people living in the Arctic the situation is different.  Arctic agriculture and logging may in many cases profit from warming.  For reindeer herders the situation seems more difficult, but most probably they will experience more difficult times, with more ice in winter, invasion of woods from the south or the difficulties that arise when permafrost is melting.  For fishermen the situation may also get difficult with changing species composition, but new fishing fields in the north may compensate for different species and changes in ecosystem in the south.  For tourism and transportation a decrease of sea ice cover will be beneficial.  New and so far unreachable destinations may be in reach and the possibility to use the Northeast and Northwest Passage open up shorter transportation routes to important markets.  For the oil and gas industry less ice is a great advantage.  There will be strong arguments to explore the 25 % of the Worlds remaining gas and oil reserves that are expected present in the Arctic Ocean.  And with our seemingly inability to create and continue a prosperous life without the use of fossil fuels great pressure to extract oil and gas from the Arctic Ocean can be expected, in particular when receding ice eases the operational challenges.

Graveyards are important in Greenland. The dead forefathers need a fine view in Upernavik. Photo P. Wassmann

In summary, there is no clear answer to the question of what will happen to life in the Arctic Ocean when the ice disappear in summer. The challenge to give answers is far too demanding for today’s scientists that work in the region.  Scientific knowledge from the Arctic is rather limited and the climatic development is too fast to give the clear answers that society provides.  Nobody suffers more for this weak answering capability then the scientist working in the Arctic Ocean.

A dog sledge for any purpose. Four sledges ready for use in winter. Photo P. Wassmann

Comments are closed.