Arctic Tipping Points

Everything happening now to the climate is caused by humans

Cape Alexander at the entrance to the Nares Strait that connects the North Water Polynia, food base for the Thule inuits, with the Lincoln Sea in the Arctic Ocean. Photo P. Wassmann

Off course not.  This is a statement that an environmental fundamentalist may provide.  There is a concomitant development of the climate having natural and man-made causes.  To distinguish between those two forcings is one of the big challenges for science.  Nothing is more difficult than to solve this question.  We would often need good and long time series data that are in short supply.

The UN climate panel (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPPC]) works hard to provide the best possible evidence to give a balanced answer to the question if recent climate change is natural or man-made.  The conclusion of the IPPC is not to be taken lightly.  The panel summarises the evidence that science can provide. The answer - in a time when there is consensus that our society should be knowledge based – is a significant one.  When IPPC states “It is very likely that the emission of climate gasses by humans have caused most of the increase in global temperature during the last 50 years”, then they do not say that climate change is only due to humans.  They state that the emission of greenhouse gases is very likely (95 % probability that this is so) the cause for the recent warming.  The human contribution of global warming comes on top of the natural.  In fact, IPPC scientists have reason to believe that the natural global temperature should decline for the time being.  Which supports the argument that the observed warming is man-made.

Nothing that happens to the climate is caused by humans

Mighty glaciers from the ice cap discharge their icy loads into the Nares Strait. Photo P. Wassmann

Off course not.  The most advanced methods – that deal with the development of many types of observations in space and time – concluded that this hypothesis couldn’t be verified.  In other words (and to translate scientific jargon): human activity is very likely involved in global warming.

Climate change takes place and this will have consequences for the livelihood of the human race.  The changes in the climate that we will have in front of us will not be the start of the end.  In times when significant changes take place dooms day prophets make their appearance.  And the pessimistic among us may listen to these prophets and our expectations for a promising (but not uncomplicated) future will be coloured.  The optimistic among us may tend to the opposite direction and expose themselves to hybris, which in our times is often connected to a strong believe that technology will solve all our problems, also those of ecosystem feed-backs and resource overconsumption.

We live in a society based on the assumption that the base for our decision should be knowledge.  Due to that sciences, and in particular natural sciences, are highly prioritised.  When it comes to climate change, knowledge has magic qualities: it keeps the overwhelming threats and the doomsday prophesies at a distance. Knowledge is the ultimate weapon against foolishness, arrogance, apocalyptic attitudes, repression and doomsday prophets.  As in previous periods of history the future will be good, but the earths reduced carrying capacity and climate change will result in lowered life quality.

Marginal ice zone at 78 degrees north in the Nares Strait. Greenland in the background. In the midle of August there is still midt night sun at this latitude. Photo P. Wassmann

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