Arctic Tipping Points

Archive for the ‘ATP cruise June 2009’ Category

In mid-June the ATP project will commence its first fieldwork activities with a two week cruise around Svalbard.

The Arctic Tipping Point (ATP) project starts its first cruise to the arctic and ice-covered waters of the Barents Sea, the Fram Strait and the region north of Spitsbergen.  ATP will use the ice-enforced research vessel of the University of Tromsø, R/V Jan Mayen.  The ATP crew consists on 16 scientists and technicians from Portugal, Poland, Spain and Norway.  In addition ATP takes 2 journalists (Norway, Spain), 1 multimedia person (Spain), 1 photographer (Norway), 2 young artists and 2 established artists to the Arctic.  Most of the participants will arrive in Tromsø, since long the arctic gateway, on Sunday June 14 and will establish themselves on the research vessel.

Several tonnes or equipment and hundred of boxes that have been sent to Tromsø recently are already on board and will be unpacked.  Jan Mayen will leave Tromsø on Monday, June 15 in the afternoon and steams north for the first goal, Bear Island south of the southern cape of Spitsbergen.

The conditions to get north are not good for the time being.  Northerly winds have pushed the ice southwards and, despite of the generally reduced ice-cover in the Arctic Ocean, there is much ice in the Barents Sea and the Fram Strait.atp1

The University of Tromsø research vessel Jan Mayen enjoys bright sunshine in the marginal ice zone

After months of preparation finally the ATP team dedicated to experimental manipulations and comparative analyses heads to the belt of waters where cold Arctic and warmer Atlantic water masses mix.   This belt is often characterised as the Polar Front and represents the southernmost limit of winter ice-extent.  The present part of the ATP consortium attempts to detect climatic thresholds and tipping points of Arctic organisms and ecosystems by a) studying physiological response of key zooplankton species and groups on increases in temperature and b) by using genome-wide analyses to develop genomic markers of climate-driven stress useful as early-warning indicators of the proximity of tipping points.  Based upon these studies a biological-physical coupled 3 D model will be used to generate future trajectories of Arctic ecosystems under projected climate change scenarios and to identify their consequences for the Arctic ecosystem.  The model results will in turn prepare the ground for evaluations of the impacts of abrupt changes in the Arctic ecosystems for activities of strategic importance for the European Arctic and the associated impacts on employment and income will be elucidated, and policies and legislative frameworks to adapt and mitigate these impacts will be analysed. At the very end of ATP the effectiveness of possible alternative, post-Kyoto policies and stabilization targets in avoiding climate-driven thresholds in the Arctic ecosystem will be examined, and the results and projections will be conveyed to policy makers, economic sectors and the public in general.

To obtain this goal there is a long road to go and right now the ship-born ATP consortium focus for a more immediate goal:  they are heading for the first station in the Arctic outflow waters of Barents Sea, south of Bear Island where RV Jan Mayen will arrive in the evening of June 16.  After a safety drill, demonstration of survival suits and launch of lifeboat, the participants familiarised with the research vessel. Jan Mayen has just left the green and wood-covered fjords and sounds of the north Norwegian coastal zone.  Strings of flat and grey islet appear at the western horizon while grey clouds cover the high mountains of the coast.  The sea is calm and the scientists, journalists and artists alike unite in the wish that good weather and fair winds may accompany the entire cruise.  Much of the equipment has been unpacked and safely fixed to tables and shelves.  Temperature controlled rooms are used to mimic the life conditions of organisms.  The artists have started their projects and the journalists and photographers write blogs and take visual samples of the sea and the science crew.  A fruitful and busy day is coming to an end.  But what does this mean far north of the Polar Circle in June?  One goes to bed because one is tired, not because it has become dark.  A string of bright nights lie ahead.

There was almost no change in the sea ice cover of the Arctic Ocean from 1900 to about 1950. Since the last 30-50 years sea ice cover has decreased, in particular during the summer moths July, August and September. Remark the record low ice cover in 2007 and 2008.

Jan Mayen has arrived at the first station where samples were taken, south of Bear Island. The weather is changing, as usual in this region. Cold air from the east turns into fog over the warm waters of the Atlantic inflow. The number of satellite pictures from the Barents Sea region is limited in the productive season because of the foggy, grey nature of this productive, fish-rich sea. We wished to sample the cold Arctic waters that flow from a northeasterly direction out of the Barents Sea and around Bear Island. The current was strong: the vessel drifted with approximately 1 nm per hour. From there these waters turn north and flow along the West-Spitsbergen continental shelf, which we will investigate later on our cruise. Our first results were a little disappointing. The water was quite mixed there was no clear chlorophyll maximum and the gelatinous, colony-forming phytoplankton species Phaeocystis pouchetii was found throughout the water column. P. pouchetii is known to clog filters and nets and indeed it was difficult to obtain good samples. But worse: we found few adult zooplankton, mostly younger stages. We have left the position and head for the southern tip of Bear Island with its stiff cliffs and extended bird colonies.

Terms such as the tip of the iceberg and lately tipping point have become rather common. What do we in this project mean by the term tipping point? It refers to a critical threshold at which minor perturbations can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Because the Arctic is warming about three times faster than the global rate, Arctic ecosystems are likely to encounter climate-driven thresholds and tipping points. This leads to abrupt ecological changes much sooner as compared with other regions. The spectacular recent acceleration of Arctic ice loss suggests that climate change has entered a new phase (see figure). Indeed, the Arctic ice pack has been identified as one of the key tipping elements in the world climate system, making change in the Arctic significant on a global scale. Current models suggest that the Arctic Ocean will be largely ice-free in late summer, with a cover of mostly first-year ice in winter in 2 decades from now, or even earlier. Such extensive changes in sea ice will have unprecedented effects on Arctic ecosystems. Establishing where and when these tipping points will be reached is, therefore, a matter of urgency.

Late last night we reached Bear Island, a major island south of Spitsbergen.  The southern edge is steep and characterised by colossal bird colonies.  Low clouds on the top of the flat mountain on top of the cliffs, patchy rains showers and seabirds flying to their nests high in the cliffs or in formation above the waves.  There were a couple bright green grass patches in lower reaches of the cliffs.  They are cause by the guano of seabirds and no green has ever been greener then in the High North when the red component in the sun light at night makes the vegetation almost florescent.  Some weeks ago a Russian vessel crashed into the cliffs of Bear Island and the danger of oil leakage was considerable, with the consequences that would have had for birdlife in the protected region where all vessels have to keep a distance of minimum 1 nm.  Like toy the vessel was situated below the cliff on a small beach.  Oil on the ocean close to bird colonies in the middle of the breeding season or in ice-covered waters, this is what nature conservation is most concerned about in this region.

In the morning some of the ATP team visited the meteorological station on Bear Island and Bear Island radio.  We went there in Zodiacs, well equipped with survival suits, signal pistols  and rifles (the station has about 200 sightings of Polar Bears a year, mostly during the period when ice entangles the island; to be on the safe side, you always carry a rifle with you on such locations).   9 persons work here for 6 months a time.  We were given a guided tour in a large and spacious building you can find workshops, a helicopter hangar, a weather balloon launch site, a work-out studio, a bar and whatever there may be need for.  Outside a few polar dogs barked.  Eider ducks sat on their nests and terns filled the skies.  Yellow and purple flower patches covered the ground.  After this short visit we left in a northeasterly direction, crossed the shallow Svalbard Bank and moved northwards in the Polar Front region towards the island of Hopen, which is for the time being still entangled by thick ice.  We used the CTD to have a feel for the water column structure and phytoplankton development.  We are now in arctic waters and head for our second big station, which starts on Thursday morning in the Arctic waters off Hopen Island.

Two Polar Bears, one in good and one in bad shape, share a seal for lunch (Photo C. Wexels Riser)

In bright sunshine and calm seas we arrived in the early morning hours at our next big sampling station, 40 nm off the island of Hopen.  It was an excellent day.  There was a chlorophyll maximum around 30 m depth and the presence of our slimy friend Phaeocystis was endurable.  The search for zooplankton with regard to type and stage was successful too, but their numbers were low.  Thus we had to take net after net to obtain adequate quantities.  It took us almost 10 hours to get sufficient animals. With great intensity a large number of planktologists work in the lab and cool rooms to run the experiments.  It has been an intensive day and loud rock license music keeps them awake and in shape for still a few more hours.

We are in the region where a key species in the Barents Sea ecosystem, the salmonid fish capelin, migrates northwards during summer.  The capelin has large zooplankton species on their main menu they swim northwards to graze until they have accumulated significant amounts of fat in early autumn.  After which they migrate back to the coast to spawn in spring.  Despite of that we are seemingly in the right season we could not sight any of the numerous whales that have their feeding grounds in what is called the capelin front.  However, little auks, small birds that live in colonies were rather frequent around the ship.  These birds are zooplankton eaters and pick their prey from the sea surface, thanks to their excellent vision.

We expected ice already today, but there was a difference between the most recent ice map and reality.  While we should be well into ice, no ice could be seen.  We learned the reason for this. The island of Hopen was outside of the radar satellite coverage used for the ice chart the day before.  Ice in those areas has to be mapped by passive microwave (25 km resolution) from the previous day.  As it is summer and the ice pack in the area is fairly loose the situation can change quite rapidly depending the wind conditions.  This explains the reason for the discrepancy. But now we are steaming in the southern regions of the Olga Street.  We expect to reach the marginal ice zone soon.  Expectations to see Polar Bears are rising among those of the science crew that have been up north for the first time.  In the advent of this pictures from pervious sightings are distributed among the participants, in particular the journalists.  I cross my fingers for the next day with good sampling, ice and a Polar Bear.

A seal enjoys warm sunshine on an iceflow (Photo M. Lundberg)

My prayers for good sampling, ice and a Polar bear were partly fulfilled!  We went into the ice around 22:00 and the beauty and splendour of the marginal ice zone in sparkling sunshine resulted in great excitement among those of the science crew that had not been to the Arctic Ocean before.  We went on until the ice got too thick and decided to take a big station in the morning.  By then everybody of the science crew were on deck, filming, taking photos or just admiring the perfect scene.  “The most beautiful sight I have seen” was heard.  Then, just after midnight, a Polar bear was sighted.  It was one of these younger animals that are very curious.  After some time the bear came close to the ship and enthusiastic swarms of participants gathered on the front deck to get the best views.  The silence of nature was accompanied by uninterrupted waves of agitated Spanish.  After some time the bear, the new star from the marginal ice zone and portrayed by all available media, did not think it was interesting anymore to stand in front of the biggest tin he had observed, without getting hold of the content.  So off he went into the white wilderness, en route to  it important prey, seals.  The frozen newcomers to the Arctic warmed themselves with cups of tea, were all smiles and rushed for their beds.  Not because of the bright morning sunshine, but because they were tired.  And the cruise leader was happy of this “success”.

The next day we woke up to foggy conditions and raw and cold air.  Sampling started in ice-covered waters.  A clear chlorophyll max was present around 37 m and to begin with sampling of zooplankton was fine.  But then we were unable to obtain sufficient animals for the planned experiments.  We tried different depth with our net and then decided to move towards the south and out of the ice.  All that in the hope to obtain more animals, in particular adults of the cold water species Calanus glacialis.  We obtained sufficient animals for some experiments, but not so much as we had liked.

In the early evening we made an attempt to visit the island of Hopen and the local meteorological station there.  Only 4 people occupy this station year-round.  Hopen is a long and mountainous island which lies in the direct track of Polar bears which have their overwintering sites on the island of Kong Karls Land to the north.  Hopen may have as much as 500 Polar bear sightings a year.  Nobody can leave the station without a loaded rifle.  Even the meteorological readings outside every 4th hour take place fully armed.  Polar dogs are at the support of the crew to figure out if a Polar bear is around.  When we came closer to the island we hade to give up our attempt because belts of drift ice were still around.  In the thick fog we would had to navigate the Zodiaks with GPS through the belts.  Too difficult and dangerous.  We are heading now for the waters south of Spitsbergen.

The Arctic Ocean is the core of the pan-Arctic region. It is presently covered by both permanent and seasonal ice (light blue) and engirdled by permanently ice-free regions, so called polynias (reddish line). To study a circular ocean such as the Arctic Ocean exclusively on a regional, national or sector level is a serious mistake. To understand the Arctic Ocean extensive Pan-Arctic integration is indispensible, which this is at present not sufficiently developed.

ATP is not a solitary research project, but rests upon the collective experience of the ARCTOS network (www.arctosresearch.net) and other national and international projects that have been active in the European sector of the Arctic Ocean over recent decades. The Barents Sea and Svalbard region belongs to the best invested in the Arctic Ocean. The Norwegian Polar Institute continuously investigates the fjords and adjacent shelf regions of Svalbard.  Much of the Barents Sea expertise started when the Institute of Marine Research carried out the project “Capelin on summer pastures” in the early 80ties.  In 1984 the famous system ecological project PRO MARE started, lasting for 6 years.  PRO MARE was the first system ecological investigation of the Barents Sea, combining physical oceanography, ecological investigation of key food web elements, biogeochemical cycling and C flux modelling. PRO MARE fostered a suit of follow-up investigations: “Arktis Lys og Varme”, “On thin ice”, CABANERA (www.nfh.uit.no/cabanera), ICE-BAR, NESSAS, ECOBAR and others. In addition, ATP builds firmly upon just finished large, integrated EU projects THRESHOLDS (www.thresholds-eu.org) and DAMOCLES (www.damocles-eu.org).

Such a broad and solid base is essential for that ATP can achieve its goals: to identify the elements of the Arctic marine ecosystem likely to show abrupt changes in response to climate change.  This implies detailed and best possible knowledge as the base for experiments and analysis. State-of-the-art oceanographic, ecological, fisheries, and economic models will determine the effect of crossing those thresholds for the Arctic marine ecosystems, and the associated risks and opportunities for economic activities dependent on the marine ecosystem of the European Arctic.  These must then be integrated with the activities of other nations to obtain a best possible and balanced pan-Arctic comprehension.

More broadly, ATP aims at to raise the attention of policy makers to the possibility of Arctic tipping points at regional and global scales.  At the regional scales, ATP shall examine how institutions and policies for the management of living marine resources, tourism and petroleum development would cope with situations of very rapid change in ecosystems driven by climate change. This is an entirely new situation and will severely test the ability of existing institutions to deliver policies that are sustainable over time. ATP aims at to support the efforts of institutions in the European Arctic to devise policies and strategies for coping with regime shifts. At the pan-Arctic scale, an understanding of tipping points and potential regime shift due to various levels of warming must be considered in negotiations toward a new international agreement for climate change regulation, and will be valuable for informing the EU position during these negotiations.

Center of Marine Sciences (CCMAR), University of Algarve, Portugal

The team from CCMAR studies Arctic phytoplankton transcriptomics

The CCMAR team from Portugal (Ana Ramos, Ester Serrão and Gareth Pearson) is studying the effects of climatic changes on the biodiversity of Arctic communities of phytoplankton, which turn carbon dioxide and sunlight into food, thereby sustaining the complex web of more emblematic Arctic species - ultimately including whales, polar bears, and indeed human communities.  But what is very different in their approach is that they are looking inside the cells at the smallest level of biodiversity that exists – the genes.  Although all the genes of living organisms are encoded in their DNA, only a proportion are actively working - being expressed - at any given time.  When a set of genes is needed they are copied, or transcribed, into RNA and then into the proteins that do the work within the cell.  Transcriptomics is the study of RNA expressed in a single species at the whole genome level, and metatranscriptomics is a more complex version, in which a community of species is examined together.  The CCMAR researchers intend to sequence metatranscriptomes - hundreds of thousands of RNA molecules from natural communities, allowing them to identify the set of proteins being produced and their relative abundances.  This will produce a snapshot of the status of natural communities - for example what stresses, nutrient requirements, or repair and maintenance processes are operating.  By looking at both community structure and metatranscriptomes under future climate scenarios, which include serious increases in sea temperatures, it is hoped that some of these genes may prove to be useful molecular “alarm bells” alerting us to potentially irreversible ecosystem changes - before the tipping point is reached.

Ester Serano

Ana Ramos

Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences, (IOPAS), Sopot, Poland

The team from IOPAS studies the effects of temperature on egg development time and zooplankton hatching success.

The team from IOPAS participating in the ATP project includes Sławek Kwaśniewski, Agata Weydmann and Anna Olszewska. The IOPAS team has two tasks within ATP: a) organizing the existing biological time series data, gathered so far by different institutions contributing to the program, and b) carrying out experiments during the Jan Mayen cruise of ATP. The main focus of the experimental work during the cruise is investigating the effects of temperature rise on egg development time and hatching success for the two copepod species: the Arctic Calanus glacialis and the North Atlantic C. finmarchicus. Calanus species, which are one of the main consumers of primary production in Arctic and sub-Arctic seas, form an important  link in the food web between phytoplankton and higher trophic levels, up to fish and mammals. Because of their large biomass and efficient way of accumulating energy in the form of lipids, they are a key components of the Arctic marine ecosystem and of the great importance for its sustainable functioning.

We expect that the observed warming of the marine climate, and shifting of the geographical ranges of distribution of these specialized herbivores, will have substantial impact on their biology, and consequently on the functioning of the marine ecosystems of the European Arctic. Thus, in our work we would like to focus on the problem of eggs development and hatching success under the tipping points temperature increase scenario.

Agata Weydman

Slawomir Kwasnieswski